2025 Canadian Federal Election Analysis

On April 28, 2025, the Liberal Party of Canada was elected for a fourth consecutive time, with Mark Carney as leader. The election produced a highly competitive two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives—an outcome that few would have predicted at the start of 2025. The Liberals fell short of a majority, instead holding a minority government with 169 seats. They were able to win the popular vote, which they have not achieved since 2015, by framing their campaign message about the threat posed by President Trump’s trade actions and his rhetorical attacks on Canadian sovereignty. This framing resonated with voters, allowing the Liberals to siphon off significant support from both the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP). The Conservative Party also made substantial gains in votes and seats, as other critical considerations for this election included affordability, public safety, and natural resource management. With both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh losing their seats, there is uncertainty on who will lead these parties into the post-election landscape.

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