EGA Five Facts to Know: The State of the Union
Tonight, President Biden will deliver his State of the Union address to a divided Congress and a country whose people distrust the institutions that enable our nation’s democracy – including government. The President will use this opportunity to showcase his leadership over the past two years and build support for his policy agenda going forward. He’ll also need to address a growing list of public concerns. First and foremost, he will seek to assure Americans that the economy is recovering and attempt to offer hope for resolving critical social issues, including police violence, gun control, voter rights, and immigration. On the geopolitical front, the President will want to assert American leadership, including talking tough on China and urging increased support for Ukraine’s military efforts. This Congress is expected to be filled with contention and investigation and make very little legislative progress. The State of the Union is a critical opportunity for the President to frame issues favorably and set public expectations.
Here are – not five – but six facts to know about Biden’s State of the Union:
1. This Marks the Start of President Biden's Reelection Bid
This address isn’t merely President Biden’s report on the state of the union – it’s his de facto stump speech unofficially kicking off his 2024 reelection campaign (he is expected to announce his intentions in mid-February). Biden will remind voters of his legislative accomplishments, reassure and instill consumer confidence in the economy, address social justice issues that motivate his Democratic base, and carefully frame his policy agenda in moderate terms making an effort to make Republican opposition look unreasonable and extreme. In the lead-up to today’s speech, Biden and his surrogates have been on tour, promoting infrastructure projects and touting his accomplishments. It’s not just the White House at stake in 2024; it’s also control of the Senate. There are 33 Senate seats up for election, 20 held by Democrats and three held by Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vulnerable Democratic Senators will have a lot of influence with the White House, advising the White House on policy decisions to ensure alignment with their voter base and inviting the President to visit their state – where it’s helpful – all in an effort to gain seats in the Senate and deliver another term to Biden.
2. Biden Must Restore Consumer Trust in the Economy and Address Inflation Concerns
In December, inflation was at 6.5%, one of the highest levels in decades but the smallest 12-month increase since October 2021 – the same month in which Biden’s approvals ratings dropped to the low 40s (and have since stayed). Last year, the economy added 4.5 million jobs, yet consumer spending is slowing. In Gallop’s latest poll, inflation remains the second most-cited problem, just after the government. Edelman’s Trust Barometer shows that in the US, the percentage of people who say their family will be better off in five years dropped by four points, and of those surveyed, only 42% have trust in the government. That’s a formidable one-two punch for Biden to defend. He must convince a skeptical public that things will get better under his leadership and the legislation passed in 2022 under a Democratic-controlled Congress is a big part of the reason.
3. Debt Ceiling Will be a Test of the President's Ability to Lead with a Divided Congress
Reaching a compromise on the debt ceiling will test President Biden’s leadership and ability to work with a divided Congress. On the question of raising the debt ceiling, the country is divided along partisan lines. But the majority of Americans believe that government spending should be cut, which aligns with the Republicans’ position. With those numbers, it will be hard for the President to plea to raise the debt ceiling simply to fund government programs. He’ll need to frame the GOP’s opposition as brinkmanship politics threatening economic recovery. He’ll frame Republicans’ lack of specific proposed tax credits as a sign that they aren’t united and repeat his debt ceiling mantra: “I won’t bargain with America’s credit rating.” The President was in this position before, in 2011, while serving as VP to President Obama. After avoiding a potentially disastrous government shutdown, Biden vowed, “Never again, no negotiating.” He wants a clean vote that increases the debt ceiling with no conditions. It’s unclear if Republicans are truly united regarding proposed cuts or if they chose not to give President Biden a list of proposed cuts before the State of the Union, denying him the opportunity to use his address to vilify their proposals.
4. President Biden Needs to Win a Battle in the Culture Wars
In his bid for president, Biden positioned himself as a leader who could build consensus and bring people together to overcome the growing cultural and political divide. Since his election, mass shootings and police violence have continued, the Supreme Court Dobbs v. Jackson decision overturned long-standing federal protections for abortion, and campaigns against “woke policies” continue to gain momentum. President Biden’s Democratic base is frustrated and wants federal action. While Republican voters are supportive of reining in police power, it’s unlikely that Congress will pass federal policing standards or act on other Democratic proposals, such as bans on assault weapons and expanded voting rights. The President’s best avenues for bringing change are through his regulatory and administrative authority, including prioritizing these issues within the Department of Justice. The President must lay out a compelling strategy for change, call on Congress to act, and use every regulatory authority avenue available to him to show progress to his base before 2024.
5. A Lack of a Clear Path for Immigration Policy is Dividing Democrats and Motivating GOP Voters
The President has an immigration leadership opportunity, and, despite making numerous Executive Actions designed to undo the Trump administration’s restrictions, he has shown a lack of progress on two critical programs promised on his first day in office: the legalization of undocumented immigrants currently in the US, and a rebuild of the border asylum system. There is a wide range of immigration policies being debated within the Democratic party, from relatively modest increases in border security to opening the borders to everyone. This lack of consensus has limited the President’s ability to be a strong leader on this issue. It has allowed Republican Governors to influence the conversation with political tactics like transporting immigrants to the cities of Democrat Mayors. Last week, the President released a new immigration strategy proposing new border enforcement efforts and increasing the number of pathways to citizenship. During his address, he’ll call on Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform and increase funding for border security. But, without Democratic consensus, Congressional action is unlikely, leaving Republicans in control of the immigration narrative.
A bonus fact to keep in mind:
6. US Global Influence Hinges on the President's Ability to Create a Stable Foreign Policy Environment
President Biden will address the nation days after the US downed a Chinese surveillance balloon and the world marked one-year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese spying incident means that the President will need to be tougher in his approach to China than just an acknowledgment of our trade and manufacturing codependency. He will use this incident to emphasize the need to revitalize America’s manufacturing industry, but he’ll now need to go much further. He’ll also ask Congress to increase funding to Ukraine. At this moment, the US’ ability to influence and shape geopolitics for good is being questioned. It’s incumbent on the US to engage and, in doing so, bring global stability and assurance. The anti-China sentiment is high among Americans, and so is support for Ukraine. This gives the President the opportunity to capture public support for greater global engagement. The President needs to outline an aggressive strategy that demonstrates, to Americans and the world, that the US still has influence and that pursuing Biden’s policies can bring stability to the foreign policy environment.
