Sunak stakes claim to be the change candidate
Rishi Sunak delivered his first Conference speech as Prime Minister today, mindful of the prevailing mood in the country – shared by many in his own party – that after 13 years in power, the Conservatives are tired, out of ideas and set for a spell in opposition. With polls suggesting voters believe Labour are best-placed to address the country’s challenges, Sunak and his team have clearly decided that he must present himself as the ‘change candidate’ if the next election is to be competitive.
In attempting to overturn a sustained Labour poll lead of 20 points or so, Sunak pitched himself as someone willing to challenge orthodoxy, stand up to vested interests and take “long-term decisions in the national interest” – wording branded all over the Conference venue, and the narrative around which Sunak’s speech was structured. Health and education were key themes, with an eye-catching announcement effectively banning smoking – by raising the legal age to buy cigarettes by one year, every year – and the creation of a new Advanced British Standard school-leaver qualification combining A-Levels and T-Levels.
However, Sunak’s room for manoeuvre is constrained by policies implemented by previous Conservative Prime Ministers. We’ve seen this with the new approach to net zero and also with HS2, the fate of which loomed large over Conference before Sunak formally confirmed that he would be cancelling the Birmingham to Manchester section and diverting the £36 billion to other transport projects in the Midlands and North.
This came despite a late lobbying effort from business and politicians, including the Conservative West Midlands Mayor Andy Street who claimed that curtailing the project would amount to “cancelling the future”. The decision also earned a rare intervention from David Cameron who lamented that it will “fuel the views of those who argue that we can no longer think or act for the long-term as a country; that we are heading in the wrong direction.”
Whether or not people find the ‘long-term decisions’ angle credible, the general consensus was that Sunak gave a decent enough speech which landed well in the Conference hall. He also sought to prepare the ground for a general election campaign, trailing what will be key attack lines against Keir Starmer for lacking principles or consistency, for wanting to negate the opportunities of Brexit, and for having campaigned for Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister. He also hinted at some of the wider themes that will feature in the Tory election pitch, including a pushback against trans rights, arguing that “we shouldn’t be bullied into thinking people can be any sex they want to be.”
No one that EGA spoke to after the speech felt it had gone badly – one MP told us that Sunak “did a brilliant job and helped establish some good dividing lines with Labour.” However, given the scale of the challenge, others were not convinced that he had done enough. A former Cabinet Minister told us that “the PM presenting himself as the change candidate doesn't work – he's been in charge of the economy in one guise or another for more than four years now.” Another likened his speech to “a series of baubles without a Christmas tree”, bemoaning the lack of a clear theme throughout.
With a general election on the horizon, even the most ardent Sunak supporters will have to admit there is much work to be done in the coming months, not least on the cost of living, one of the nation’s biggest concerns which got just a cursory mention in his speech.
Despite his team’s efforts to the contrary, Sunak’s team spectacularly failed to control the narrative throughout this Conference, most clearly evidenced by letting the uncertainty of the HS2 saga roll on for so long – and in Manchester of all places. By refusing to give a straight answer in media interviews about it – while portraying himself as decisive – Sunak has in many ways been the architect of his own problems.
As many were quick to tell us, this does not bode well ahead of a Presidential-style election campaign. A snap YouGov poll released after the speech also illustrates the scale of the challenge facing Sunak – 69% of respondents said he represents ‘more of the same’, compared to 13% who said he represents change, and 18% undecided. Focusing on issues where he can draw a contrast with his predecessors, like on HS2, could help to shift those numbers – but potentially at the cost of qualities previously seen as central to his pitch, namely stability and good governance.
The mood on the ground
The mood on the ground at Party conference has been a mixed one. To begin with, it was definitely less well-attended than in previous years; while this shouldn’t come as a surprise, it is nonetheless significant. Like at elections when voters are disillusioned, many people have simply decided to stay at home. The motives for attending are also worth noting; EGA spoke to a former Cabinet Minister who said he was at Conference for a single day, attending a single event in order to criticise government policy on an area of interest to him.
Conferences are often notable for the contrast between the stage-managed official programme and the free-flowing (and occasionally spicy) fringe; this year this has been even more pronounced, with a number of Cabinet Ministers using fringe events to openly set out their visions and credentials for the post-Sunak era. The blunt truth is that many Conservatives think the next election is lost, and their attention is on who replaces Sunak and the wider fight for the soul of the Party. Cue the Home Secretary freelancing at fringe events, and Penny Mordaunt releasing a slick video ahead of her speech that would not look out of place at a festival (or indeed, a leadership election).
The most popular name in many conversations has been Kemi Badenoch’s. Many One Nation Tories EGA spoke to seem likely to back her purely because she isn't Suella Braverman, and believe that by supporting her early they may be able to shape her direction.
Despite the ignominious end to Liz Truss’s premiership, her agenda appears to be in the intellectual ascendency; her highly anticipated ‘Great British growth rally’ drew in significant crowds of co-ideologues, including many MPs and a certain Mr Nigel Farage, who appears to have lost none of his appetite for pushing the party to adapt his preferred agenda. Mindful of Farage’s popularity on the party’s right, the Prime Minister and other ministers felt the need to say they would be open to Farage formally joining.
Farage’s presence – and the debate this sparked – illustrated the wider dilemma the Party faces regarding its future. Could the Conservatives fully embrace populism, US Republican Party-style? On the day a small group of intransigent Republicans ousted their own Speaker, many commentators were quick to draw this parallel. Evidence of this tension was widespread from the ‘Make Britain Grow Again’ branding, to London Mayoral candidate Susan Hall’s claim that Jewish communities were ‘frightened’ by Sadiq Khan, or the Deputy Chairman’s direct attack on a journalist’s integrity for refusing to disclose his sources.
What did business think about this conference?
From a business perspective, this year’s conference was an improvement on last year, an admittedly low bar given it was dominated by the chaos of the mini budget. Fewer businesses made an appearance, an immediate concern for the Conservatives given what a money-spinner Conference is for the Party. Some business representatives EGA did speak to said it felt like the Government was finally talking to them, rather than over them; and Sunak was well-received at the Business Day event, where he came across as engaged and impressive – to the surprise of some delegates. However, others commented that they feel the Government is increasingly looking at things through an explicitly party-political lens, and is simply paying them lip service due to the threat they clearly feel from Labour’s business-focused charm offensive.
As with Conference as a whole, the curtailment of HS2 loomed large in business discussions, and regardless of the merits of the decision itself, as with the recent pivot on net zero, there were concerns about the impact it would have on business confidence and the perception of the UK having a stable policy environment – a key driver of investment. As such, CBI Chief Executive Rain Newton-Smith noted the Treasury’s limited fiscal firepower and urged Sunak and his Chancellor to press ahead with net zero commitments to “unlock serious levels of business investment and get the economy firing again”.
The British Chambers of Commerce, meanwhile, warned that business conditions remain among the hardest in generations and employers are struggling to contain wage inflation. In response to the Chancellor’s announcement of an increase in the living wage, the BCC’s Deputy Director of Policy Jane Gratton warned “There is a limit to how much new cost that firms can absorb. The government needs to be cautious in setting future wage rate rises. We need to strike the right balance between boosting pay and ensuring the very survival of some firms is not put in jeopardy.”
Round-up of key policy announcements
- The Prime Minister confirmed that the “remainder of HS2 will be scrapped” arguing it no longer makes economic or logistical sense. The estimated £36 billion of savings will be reinvested in alternative transport upgrades in the North and Midlands.
- The Government will introduce an incremental ban on smoking, raising the smoking age by “one year every year” until the practice is completely phased out.
- The Chancellor announced that the National Living Wage will be increased to “at least £11 an hour”, with a view to the change coming into force next April.
- The Health Secretary announced the creation of a new £30 million fund to speed up the adoption of tech in the NHS, enabling clinicians to embrace proven technology that can improve patient care. He also signalled an intention to ban transgender people from single-sex hospital wards under plans to restore “common sense” in the NHS.
- The Prime Minister set out £1.1 billion in further funding, as part of the existing levelling-up fund, allocated to 55 towns across the UK to put “funding in the hands of local people”.
- The Science and Technology Secretary announced £8 million extra for scholarships to study Artificial Intelligence.
- The Defence Secretary announced the signing of contracts worth £4 billion to drive forward the development of hunter-killer AUKUS submarines.
- The Transport Secretary set out the Government’s ‘Plan for Driving’, including ending the “misuse of 15-minute cities”, allowing councils to only use 20mph zones “where there’s a good reason”, and addressing the use of parking restrictions as a “money spinner”.
Looking ahead to the next election – Tories think they can win by taking the fight to Starmer
In spite of the difficulties that Sunak faces, some Conservatives believe that the Party has a narrow path to victory, albeit while acknowledging that it is a huge ask, and that things need to get much better before polling day. EGA spoke to a Special Adviser who remarked that the Labour Party in 2010 made the mistake of thinking it was all over – and then spent the first few months of the coalition years kicking themselves for not trying harder. The Conservatives will certainly not go down without a fight, but many former advisers and insiders no longer on the front line look on this ambition with derision.
In large part, this fighting spirit is driven by two factors. The first is that upon closer inspection of the headline polling, the situation is not as bad as it first appears. For example, the Conservative pollster James Johnson told a fringe event that 38% of those likely to vote at the next election are undecided, with a large percentage of those having voted Conservative in 2019 for the first time – as such, they are still in play.
The second is Conservatives’ assessment of Starmer and his leadership credentials – many are genuinely disdainful of him – as exemplified by the ‘flip-flop’ moniker they have given him. This supposedly also comes through in swing voter focus groups, meaning that rightly or wrongly, Tory strategists think he is a weak link that might buckle under the pressure of a hostile election campaign.
Indeed, with the Tory brand seen as having been tarnished under Johnson and Truss, the battle lines are drawn for a Presidential-style ‘Sunak vs Starmer’ contest, with the Conservatives trying to portray the former as a bastion of competence and integrity, and the latter as a shallow opportunist who, once in power, would be vulnerable to radical elements within his party. The risk is that a Presidential-style campaigns can backfire – as Theresa May experienced in 2017 – and that having lost a leadership election to Truss, Sunak is himself not a proven winner in this regard.
The personal contest aside, there remains the all-important question of the economic backdrop and the impact it will have on the Party’s prospects. The unexpected win at the Uxbridge by-election saw attention focus on the unpopularity of ULEZ – and the implications of that for green policies more broadly – but it was less remarked upon that average earnings in Uxbridge had held up better compared to other parts of the country.
The EGA team travelled up to Conference amid rumours of a spring General Election, but the more people we spoke to – particularly Special Advisers – the clearer it became that Sunak’s team are playing for time. An election in Autumn 2024 would allow more time for the economy to improve and inflation to fall; indeed, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was recorded telling party activists that an election would be called once it had fallen below three per cent. This is not without its own risks, not least given the likely backdrop of continued small boat crossings over the summer.
