Congress and the White House
The Congressional community is mourning the loss of Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) and two aides, Emma Thomson, and Zachery Potts. They were killed in a car crash on Wednesday. The word heard over and over from Members and staff – both Republicans and Democrats – was “devastated.” The note from the Ways and Means Committee, on which she served included:
“Jackie was simultaneously a force to be reckoned with and a relentless friend to all who knew her. The Ways and Means family will forever miss her presence in the halls of Congress but will never forget her enduring pursuit to better the lives of her constituents, and Americans across the country. Her unparalleled kindness could only be matched by her ability to make you feel valued and loved. It is these enviable qualities of hers that we will all long for as we endure the days and weeks to come. As you head home this evening, I encourage you all to look up at the Capitol to see the flag flying at half-mast in honor of our dear friend and member.”
As divided as Congress is at times – it is a community with shared experiences. The sudden loss of Jackie, Emma and Zach who were doing what all Members and thousands of aides do routinely – driving to an event – hit everyone very hard.
It's Thursday – the day the Senate normally wraps up votes for the week. And the Senate has not begun floor proceedings for the budget reconciliation bill that Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he wanted completed by the end of the week. The legislation continues to be scrubbed for “Byrd Rule” compliance by the Senate parliamentarian and there remains a good chance some key elements could get knocked out of the bill. As the legislation sits out there, Democratic senators continue to seek changes and/or additions to the bill. Sen. Kristen Sinema (D-AZ) has still not indicated how she will vote and can wait for the Byrd scrub and the results of her efforts to modify the bill before deciding.
The overwhelming sense is still the bill gets passed – although “this week” is a wildly optimistic timeline at this point. But it is worth noting – as of Thursday morning there are more potential obstacles then there were on Monday morning. More Byrd challenges, grumbling from Sen. Sanders, multiple senators seeking changes. All resolvable challenges, but they still need to be resolved.
The Senate voted approve NATO membership for Sweden and Finland. The 95-1 vote demonstrated overwhelming bipartisan support to expand NATO in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Five months after the invasion the vote demonstrates remarkable unity and consensus on the Western response to Russia’s aggression.
The question vexing Democrats: Biden 2024?
They're not abandoning him. And many are thrilled about surprising election-year wins. But that doesn't mean every lawmaker in the president's party is cheering his reelection yet. Even as Biden’s domestic agenda accelerates at surprising speed for an election year — climate, health care and taxes may follow veterans and manufacturing through Congress this summer — within his own party there’s been a slight but unmistakable political drift away from him ahead of the midterms. As Biden polls poorly in battlegrounds while congressional Democrats see a brightened political outlook for themselves, lawmakers are tying themselves in knots over whether to cheer on a second term for the 79-year-old president. It’s not that they’re abandoning Biden early, just that many see little upside in taking a firm stand either way when that risks alienating either independents or the party base.
Dems move to put a cork in the Biden-should-exit-stage-right talk.
A string of victories and the potential for more has not dispelled the skepticism that still persists in corners of the party. “Any [midterm election candidate] who’s polling is getting a poll back right now showing the president is more of a drag than Obama was in the midterms,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “That, I think, leads to a pile on of Democrats who are frustrated about their prospects.” For Biden, who is still testing positive for Covid-19, she said, “In this environment, he’s just in such a tough spot. The poor guy can’t even get sympathy for being sick.”
Indiana GOP Rep. Walorski, three others die in auto accident.
The fatal Wednesday crash also killed the congresswoman's aide Emma Thomson and two others, according to the sheriff's office in Elkhart County, Ind. Rep. Jackie Walorski and three other people died in a fatal car crash Wednesday, according to the sheriff’s office of Elkhart County, Ind. The Indiana Republican was a senior House member, her party’s top member on the House Ethics Committee and a member of the Ways and Means Committee. Her communications director, Emma Thomson, and Zachery Potts, her district director, were also killed in the accident, the sheriff’s office announced, as was the driver of the vehicle that collided with theirs.
U.S. Senate Ratifies Adding Finland and Sweden to NATO.
Resolution passed 95-1 as senators emphasize the expansion’s importance to American security worldwide. The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly ratified the addition of Finland and Sweden as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a move leaders of both parties portrayed as key to American security around the world following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The resolution passed 95-1 after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) urged lawmakers to support the measure. President Biden was an early champion of the move and in May hosted the leaders of the two countries at the White House. “I look forward to signing the accession protocols and welcoming Sweden and Finland, two strong democracies with highly capable militaries, into the greatest defensive alliance in history,” Mr. Biden said.
As Pelosi Leaves Taiwan, China’s Military Looms Larger.
Drills spurred by visit could intrude into island’s claimed territorial waters and signal Beijing’s ability to blockade. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi departed Taiwan after a whirlwind trip that raised military tensions over the island to their highest level in more than two decades, an escalation that is set to persist long after she returns home. By the time Mrs. Pelosi (D., Calif.) wrapped up a day of meetings with Taiwan’s president, senior lawmakers, executives and human-rights activists and left Taiwan on Wednesday, China’s navy had already maneuvered into position for live-fire drills that will encircle the island beginning Thursday. Mrs. Pelosi’s visit sought to reinforce what she said was America’s ironclad commitment to preserving Taiwan’s democracy. Yet the trip also brings Beijing’s military activity into what Taipei claims as its territorial waters, according to Taipei’s Defense Ministry, raising the prospect of greater pressure on an island that is the most sensitive flashpoint in U.S.-China relations.
The Economy
Bank of England Makes Biggest Rate Rise Since 1995 as Inflation Soars.
U.K. central bank follows the Fed in using larger rate rises to tame high inflation. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a half percentage point Thursday, the largest single step in more than a quarter-century, as the central bank follows the Federal Reserve in giving priority to the fight against inflation over the risk of hurting growth. In a statement, the bank raised its key rate to 1.75% from 1.25%. That means the bank has increased borrowing costs at six straight meetings of its monetary policy committee, its longest such streak since the late 1990s.
Cost of Democrats’ Corporate-Tax Increase Skews to Wealthy, Reaches Middle Class.
Republicans and businesses, pushing back on Democrats’ bill, point to wide-ranging burden of 15% minimum tax on large businesses. When Congress raises corporate taxes, companies send money to the Internal Revenue Service. The economic impact doesn’t end there. What happens next—and how much of that higher tax burden falls on workers—is at the center of the Senate debate over Democrats’ fiscal agenda. Republicans and business groups, who oppose the proposal, point to official estimates showing tax increases for middle-income households. The potential tax hike—a new 15% minimum corporate income tax on large profitable companies—could raise $313 billion over a decade from about 150 companies annually to help pay for Democrats’ climate-change and healthcare programs, according to the nonpartisan congressional Joint Committee on Taxation. Business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry are warning that the tax would deter investment, and they’re mounting campaigns to sway undecided Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D., Ariz) against the legislation. The bill, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, might get a Senate vote as soon as this week.
Companies From Google to Pepsi Are Boosting Capital Spending.
Such expenditures among S&P 500 companies are growing faster than stock repurchases for the first time since early 2021. Companies from Google parent Alphabet Inc to General Motors Co. to PepsiCo Inc. are among those that have increased spending on big-ticket items, such as real estate, equipment or technology, to fuel growth. The investments are generally intended to expand the companies’ fast-growing operations or even optimize their inventory in the midst of a challenging business environment, according to executives. Capital expenditures among companies in the S&P 500 have been growing at a faster pace than stock repurchases for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, according to data analyzed by S&P Dow Jones Indices from the second-quarter earnings season.
Young people are pissed off: Housing crush sours millennial voters.
The surging cost of housing has hit them harder than anyone else. President Joe Biden’s job-approval ratings have sunk across the board, but no group has abandoned him more strikingly than the young adults who helped propel him to the White House. While these voters are frustrated by Washington’s slow action on climate change and student debt, there’s another, often overlooked reason for their growing pessimism: The surging cost of housing has hit them harder than anyone else. The combination of record-high home prices and escalating mortgage costs — rates have nearly doubled in the last seven months — threatens to price a generation of would-be buyers out of the market, cratering home sales. Fueling the problem are rapidly rising rents that are further limiting young adults’ ability to save for down payments on their first home. Median house prices hit another record high in June. Pending home sales fell by 8.6 percent from May and were down 20 percent compared to June 2021, the National Association of Realtors said last week. And the average monthly mortgage payment is 76 percent higher than it was a year ago.
‘Never seen it this bad’: America faces catastrophic teacher shortage.
The teacher shortage in America has hit crisis levels — and school officials everywhere are scrambling to ensure that, as students return to classrooms, someone will be there to educate them. “I have never seen it this bad,” Dan Domenech, executive director of the School Superintendents Association, said of the teacher shortage. “Right now it’s number one on the list of issues that are concerning school districts ... necessity is the mother of invention, and hard-pressed districts are going to have to come up with some solutions.” It is hard to know exactly how many U.S. classrooms are short of teachers for the 2022-2023 school year; no national database precisely tracks the issue. But state- and district-level reports have emerged across the country detailing staffing gaps that stretch from the hundreds to the thousands — and remain wide open as summer winds rapidly to a close.